Risk Disclosures
Claims Development
The table below illustrates the development of the estimate of cumulative claims for Syndicate 2001 after the end of the underwriting year, illustrating how amounts estimated have changed from the first estimate made. Non-sterling balances have been converted to 2006 exchange rates to aid comparability.
Aviation
Gross basis
| Underwriting Year | 2001 £m |
2002 £m |
2003 £m |
2004 £m |
2005 £m |
2006 £m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
||||||
| Ultimate gross written premium | 100.1 | 94.6 | 82.4 | 85.8 | 80.4 | 87.4 |
| Estimate of cumulative claims At end of underwriting year | 96.8 | 66.7 | 50.6 | 52.0 | 46.7 | 47.6 |
| One year later | 51.0 | 45.4 | 37.6 | 41.9 | 45.4 | |
| Two years later | 47.1 | 46.1 | 30.9 | 37.8 | ||
| Three years later | 44.0 | 42.7 | 30.9 | |||
| Four years later | 46.0 | 42.4 | ||||
| Five years later | 45.2 | |||||
| Cumulative payments | 27.3 | 29.5 | 16.1 | 16.8 | 7.8 | 3.5 |
|
||||||
| Estimated balance to pay | 17.9 | 12.9 | 14.8 | 21.0 | 37.6 | 44.1 |
Net basis
| Underwriting Year | 2001 £m |
2002 £m |
2003 £m |
2004 £m |
2005 £m |
2006 £m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||||
| Estimate of cumulative claims at end of underwriting year | 33.9 | 44.9 | 38.6 | 42.3 | 38.3 | 40.9 |
| One year later | 33.9 | 35.4 | 29.8 | 35.8 | 33.5 | |
| Two years later | 31.1 | 34.9 | 24.4 | 32.4 | ||
| Three years later | 28.5 | 30.7 | 24.2 | |||
| Four years later | 28.7 | 31.1 | ||||
| Five years later | 27.9 | |||||
| Cumulative payments | 22.2 | 23.6 | 13.8 | 15.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 |
|
||||||
| Estimated balance to pay | 5.7 | 7.5 | 10.4 | 17.3 | 27.5 | 37.9 |
Non-marine
Gross basis
| Underwriting Year | 2001 £m |
2002 £m |
2003 £m |
2004 £m |
2005 £m |
2006 £m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||||
| Ultimate gross written premium | 326.9 | 403.8 | 509.7 | 507.0 | 539.0 | 604.0 |
| Estimate of cumulative claims: At end of underwriting year | 361.6 | 231.8 | 255.6 | 356.4 | 557.3 | 237.5 |
| One year later | 353.2 | 157.9 | 177.5 | 375.4 | 545.9 | |
| Two years later | 349.0 | 136.3 | 167.1 | 367.0 | ||
| Three years later | 350.0 | 133.2 | 156.0 | |||
| Four years later | 351.2 | 132.5 | ||||
| Five years later | 351.8 | |||||
| Cumulative payments | 319.2 | 111.4 | 121.2 | 293.2 | 366.1 | 17.1 |
|
||||||
| Estimated balance to pay | 32.6 | 21.1 | 34.8 | 73.8 | 179.8 | 220.4 |
Net basis
| Underwriting Year | 2001 £m |
2002 £m |
2003 £m |
2004 £m |
2005 £m |
2006 £m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||||
| Estimate of cumulative claims: At end of underwriting year | 211.0 | 192.7 | 211.6 | 265.8 | 301.4 | 233.5 |
| One year later | 201.0 | 143.1 | 148.9 | 246.9 | 288.9 | |
| Two years later | 200.2 | 124.6 | 137.2 | 238.2 | ||
| Three years later | 196.8 | 121.5 | 126.3 | |||
| Four years later | 198.8 | 120.6 | ||||
| Five years later | 199.3 | |||||
| Cumulative payments | 155.8 | 81.3 | 77.7 | 178.8 | 166.7 | 14.9 |
|
||||||
| Estimated balance to pay | 43.5 | 39.3 | 48.6 | 59.4 | 122.2 | 218.6 |
Marine
Gross basis
| Underwriting Year | 2001 £m |
2002 £m |
2003 £m |
2004 £m |
2005 £m |
2006 £m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||||
| Ultimate gross written premium | 81.2 | 122.7 | 165.2 | 160.7 | 182.0 | 199.0 |
| Estimate of cumulative claims: At end of underwriting year | 48.9 | 73.7 | 96.6 | 91.8 | 129.2 | 97.1 |
| One year later | 54.3 | 73.5 | 92.2 | 84.7 | 173.9 | |
| Two years later | 49.7 | 62.4 | 70.1 | 70.4 | ||
| Three years later | 48.6 | 61.0 | 68.9 | |||
| Four years later | 46.4 | 59.2 | ||||
| Five years later | 45.4 | |||||
| Cumulative payments | 41.4 | 49.4 | 57.0 | 49.7 | 58.2 | 6.3 |
|
||||||
| Estimated balance to pay | 4.0 | 9.8 | 11.9 | 20.7 | 115.7 | 90.8 |
Net basis
| Underwriting Year | 2001 £m |
2002 £m |
2003 £m |
2004 £m |
2005 £m |
2006 £m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||||
| Estimate of cumulative claims: At end of underwriting year | 43.2 | 65.5 | 83.3 | 86.1 | 86.8 | 93.5 |
| One year later | 46.3 | 62.8 | 76.1 | 74.0 | 97.6 | |
| Two years later | 42.9 | 51.5 | 56.9 | 58.5 | ||
| Three years later | 42.3 | 50.3 | 55.7 | |||
| Four years later | 40.3 | 48.9 | ||||
| Five years later | 39.5 | |||||
| Cumulative payments | 35.7 | 43.4 | 48.7 | 41.6 | 36.8 | 6.2 |
|
||||||
| Estimated balance to pay | 3.8 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 16.9 | 60.8 | 87.3 |
UK commercial
Gross basis
| Underwriting Year | 2001 £m |
2002 £m |
2003 £m |
2004 £m |
2005 £m |
2006 £m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||||
| Ultimate gross written premium | 148.0 | 176.3 | 191.3 | 186.8 | 168.5 | 149.4 |
| Estimate of cumulative claims: | ||||||
| At end of underwriting year | 99.4 | 135.5 | 143.5 | 124.9 | 113.6 | 100.8 |
| One year later | 93.1 | 122.2 | 128.5 | 110.8 | 109.9 | |
| Two years later | 102.7 | 110.1 | 101.4 | 103.5 | ||
| Three years later | 108.9 | 106.1 | 95.9 | |||
| Four years later | 113.3 | 100.0 | ||||
| Five years later | 121.6 | |||||
| Cumulative payments | 61.7 | 70.2 | 53.3 | 41.7 | 29.4 | 7.5 |
|
||||||
| Estimated balance to pay | 59.9 | 29.8 | 42.6 | 61.8 | 80.5 | 93.3 |
Net basis
| Underwriting Year | 2001 £m |
2002 £m |
2003 £m |
2004 £m |
2005 £m |
2006 £m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||||
| Estimate of cumulative claims: | ||||||
| At end of underwriting year | 91.5 | 111.6 | 124.3 | 109.5 | 102.9 | 102.1 |
| One year later | 86.4 | 104.2 | 108.5 | 100.8 | 99.6 | |
| Two years later | 85.5 | 92.6 | 91.0 | 92.6 | ||
| Three years later | 86.2 | 87.1 | 87.0 | |||
| Four years later | 84.4 | 82.7 | ||||
| Five years later | 85.8 | |||||
| Cumulative payments | 57.2 | 67.7 | 53.3 | 41.6 | 29.4 | 7.5 |
|
||||||
| Estimated balance to pay | 28.6 | 15.0 | 33.7 | 51.0 | 70.2 | 94.6 |
Syndicate 2001 Total
Gross Basis
| Underwriting Year | 2001 £m |
2002 £m |
2003 £m |
2004 £m |
2005 £m |
2006 £m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||||
| Underwriting Year | £m | £m | £m | £m | £m | £m |
| Ultimate gross written premium | 656.1 | 797.5 | 948.7 | 940.4 | 969.9 | 1,039.8 |
| Estimate of cumulative claims: At end of underwriting year | 606.7 | 507.7 | 546.3 | 625.1 | 846.8 | 483.0 |
| One year later | 551.6 | 399.0 | 435.8 | 612.8 | 875.1 | |
| Two years later | 548.5 | 354.9 | 369.5 | 578.7 | ||
| Three years later | 551.5 | 343.0 | 351.7 | |||
| Four years later | 556.9 | 334.1 | ||||
| Five years later | 564.0 | |||||
| Cumulative payments | 449.6 | 260.5 | 247.6 | 401.4 | 461.5 | 34.4 |
|
||||||
| Estimated balance to pay | 114.4 | 73.6 | 104.1 | 177.3 | 413.6 | 448.6 |
Net basis
| Underwriting Year | 2001 £m |
2002 £m |
2003 £m |
2004 £m |
2005 £m |
2006 £m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||||
| Estimate of cumulative claims: At end of underwriting year | 379.6 | 414.7 | 457.8 | 503.7 | 529.4 | 470.0 |
| One year later | 367.6 | 345.5 | 363.3 | 457.5 | 519.6 | |
| Two years later | 359.7 | 303.6 | 309.5 | 421.7 | ||
| Three years later | 353.8 | 289.6 | 293.2 | |||
| Four years later | 352.2 | 283.3 | ||||
| Five years later | 352.5 | |||||
| Cumulative payments | 270.9 | 216.0 | 193.5 | 277.1 | 238.9 | 31.6 |
|
||||||
| Estimated balance to pay | 81.6 | 67.3 | 99.7 | 144.6 | 280.7 | 438.4 |
Amlin Bermuda Ltd
Gross written premium
| Underwriting Year | 2001 $m |
2002 $m |
|---|---|---|
|
||
| At the end of underwriting year | 6.1 | 413.6 |
| One year later | 3.6 | |
|
||
| Ultimate gross written premium | 3.6 | 413.6 |
Gross earned premium
| Underwriting Year | 2001 $m |
2002 $m |
|---|---|---|
|
||
| At the end of underwriting year | – | 240.8 |
| One year later | 3.0 | |
Gross Basis
| Underwriting Year | 2001 $m |
2002 $m |
|---|---|---|
|
||
| Estimate of cumulative claims: At the end of underwriting year |
– | 86.2 |
| One year later | 1.2 | |
| Cumulative payments | 0.1 | 5.3 |
|
||
| Estimated balance to pay | 1.1 | 80.9 |
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