Operating and Financial Review

Critical Accounting Estimates

The preparation of our financial statements in conformity with IFRS and the reconciliation of these financial statements to US GAAP, require management to make estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities at the date of the financial statements and Revenue and expenses during the period. Our significant accounting policies are presented in the notes to the financial statements.

Critical accounting policies are those that are most important to the portrayal of our financial condition, results of operations and cash flow, and require management to make difficult, subjective or complex judgements and estimates about matters that are inherently uncertain. Management bases its estimates on historical experience and other assumptions that it believes are reasonable. Our critical accounting policies are discussed below. Where we are required to make materially different estimates or judgments for US GAAP from those required under IFRS these are separately discussed.

Actual results could differ from estimates used in employing the critical accounting policies and these could have a material impact on our results. We also have other policies that are considered key accounting policies, such as the policies for revenue recognition, cost capitalisation and cocoa accounting. However, these policies, which are discussed in the notes to the Group's financial statements, do not meet the definition of critical accounting estimates, because they do not generally require estimates to be made or judgements that are difficult or subjective.

(i) Brands and other intangibles

Brands and other intangibles that are acquired through acquisition are capitalised on the balance sheet. These brands and other intangibles are valued on acquisition using a discounted cash flow methodology and we make assumptions and estimates regarding future revenue growth, prices, marketing costs and economic factors in valuing a brand. These assumptions reflect management's best estimates but these estimates involve inherent uncertainties, which may not be controlled by management.

Upon acquisition we assess the useful economic life of the brands and intangibles. We do not amortise over 99% of our brands by value. In arriving at the conclusion that a brand has an indefinite life, management considers the fact that we are a brands business and expects to acquire, hold and support brands for an indefinite period. We support our brands through spending on consumer marketing and through significant investment in promotional support, which is deducted in arriving at Revenue. Many of our brands were established over 50 years ago and continue to provide considerable economic benefits today. We also consider factors such as our ability to continue to protect the legal rights that arise from these brand names indefinitely or the absence of any regulatory, economic or competitive factors that could truncate the life of the brand name. Where we do not consider these criteria to have been met, as was the case with certain brands acquired with Adams, a definite life is assigned and the value is amortised over the life.

The cost of brands and other intangibles with a finite life are amortised using a methodology that matches management's estimate of how the benefit of the assets will be extinguished. Each year we re-evaluate the remaining useful life of the brands and other intangibles. If the estimate of the remaining useful life changes, the remaining carrying value is amortised prospectively over that revised remaining useful life.

A strategic decision to withdraw marketing support from a particular brand or the weakening in a brand's appeal through changes in customer preferences might result in management concluding that the brand's life had become finite. Were intangible assets to be assigned a definite life, a charge would be recorded that would reduce reported Profit from Operations and reduce the value of the fixed assets reported in the balance sheet. We have consistently applied our estimate of indefinite brand lives since the date we first recognised brands as intangible assets in 1989 except for one brand where we amended our original estimate from an indefinite life to a definite life asset as the products had been re-branded.

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(ii) Recoverability of Long Lived Assets

We have significant long-lived asset balances, including intangible assets, goodwill and tangible fixed assets. Where we consider the life of intangible assets and goodwill to be indefinite the balance must be assessed for recoverability on at least an annual basis. In other circumstances the balance must be assessed for recoverability if events occur that provide indications of impairment. An assessment of recoverability involves comparing the carrying value of the asset with its recoverable amount, typically its value in use. If the value in use of a long-lived asset were determined to be less than its carrying value, an impairment would be charged to the Income Statement.

The key assumptions applied in arriving at a value in use for a long-lived asset are:

• The estimated future cash flows that will be derived from the asset; and
• The discount rate to be applied in arriving at a present value for these future cash flows.

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(iii) Future Cash Flows

In estimating the future cash flows that will be derived from an asset, we make estimates regarding future revenue growth and profit margins for the relevant assets. These estimates are based on historical data, various internal estimates and a variety of external sources and are developed as part of the long-term planning process. Such estimates are subject to change as a result of changing economic and competitive conditions, including consumer trends. Higher estimates of the future cash flows will increase the fair values of assets. Conversely, lower estimates of cash flows will decrease the fair value of assets and increase the risk of impairment. We attempt to make the most appropriate estimates of future cash flows but actual cash flows may be greater or less than originally predicted.

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(iv) Discount Rates

The future cash flows are discounted at rates that we estimate to be the risk adjusted cost of capital for the particular asset. An increase in the discount rate will reduce the fair value of the long-lived assets, which could result in the fair value falling below the assets carrying value and an impairment being realised as part of the annual impairment review. On the other hand a decrease in the discount rate will increase the fair value of the long-lived assets and decrease the likelihood of impairment.

Future changes in interest rates, the premium the capital markets place on equity investments relative to risk-free investments and the specific assessment of the capital markets as to our risk relative to other companies can all affect our discount rate. Increases in interest rates and/or the risk premium applied by the capital markets would both result in increased discount rates. Conversely a reduction in interest rates and/or the risk premium applied by the capital markets would both result in decreased discount rates. These factors are largely outside of our control or ability to predict. For the past five years management has applied a Group discount rate of between 8.0% and 8.5%.

Where applicable, we review the reasonableness of all assumptions by reference to available market data including, where applicable, the publicly quoted share price of the Company. Changes in the assumptions used by management can have a significant impact on the estimated fair value of assets and hence on the need for, or the size of, an impairment charge.

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(v) Trade Spend and Promotions

Accrued liabilities associated with marketing promotion programmes require difficult subjective judgments. We utilise numerous trade promotions and consumer coupon programmes. The costs of these programmes are recognised as a reduction to revenue with a corresponding accrued liability based on estimates made at the time of shipment or coupon release. The accrued liability for marketing promotions is determined through analysis of programmes, historical trends, expectations around customer and consumer participation, revenue and payment trends, and experiences of payment patterns associated with similar programmes that have previously been offered, often in consultation with external advisers. Management has significant experience in making such estimates. However each programme is different and it is possible that the initial estimate of the costs of such programmes and therefore the reduction in revenue recorded based on such estimates, may differ from the actual results. To the extent that the period end accrual proves different to the actual payments required in the subsequent period an adjustment is recorded in the subsequent period.

Up front payments are made to secure product installation in the fountain and food service channel of several of our beverage products. These payments are amortised (as a deduction to Revenue) based upon a methodology (time or volumes sold) consistent with our contractual rights under these arrangements. The total unamortised up front payments as at the year end amounted to approximately £66 million. The weighted average period over which the up front payments are being amortised is approximately 10 years with the longest period being 20 years. Were we unable to enforce our rights under the relevant contracts we may be required to accelerate the recognition of such costs, which would reduce future revenue.

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(vi) Pensions

Several subsidiaries around the world maintain defined benefit pension plans. The biggest plans are located in UK, Ireland, USA, Canada, Mexico and Australia. The pension liabilities recorded are based on actuarial assumptions, including discount rates, expected long-term rate of return on plan assets, inflation and mortality rates. The assumptions are based on current market conditions, historical information and consultation with and input from our actuaries. Management reviews these assumptions annually. If they change, or if actual experience is different from the assumptions, the funding status of the plan will change and we may need to record adjustments to our previously recorded pension liabilities.

The cost of providing pension benefits is calculated using a projected unit credit method. The assumptions we apply are affected by short-term fluctuation in market factors. We use external actuarial advisers and management judgement to arrive at our assumptions.

In arriving at the present value of the pension liabilities, we must estimate the most appropriate discount rate to be applied. We are required to base our estimate on the interest yields earned on high quality, long-term corporate bonds. As the estimate is based on an external market variable the subjectivity of the assumption is more limited, however actual interest rates may vary outside of our control, so the funding status and charge will change over time. A decrease in the discount factor will increase the pension liabilities and may increase the charge recorded. An increase in the discount factor will decrease the pension liabilities and may decrease the charge recorded.

In calculating the present value of the pension liabilities we are also required to estimate mortality rates (or life expectancy), including an expectation of future changes in mortality rates. The Group uses actuarial advisers to select appropriate mortality rates that best reflect the Group's pension scheme population. If the mortality tables, or our expectation of future changes in the mortality tables, differ from actual experience then we will be required to revise our estimate of the pension liabilities and may be required to adjust the pension cost.

In calculating the pension cost, we are also required to estimate the expected return to be made on the assets held within the pension funds. We have taken direct account of the actual investment strategy of the associated pension schemes and expected rates of return on the different asset classes held. In the case of bond investments, the rates assumed have been directly based on market redemption yields at the measurement date, whilst those on other asset classes represent forward-looking rates that have typically been based on other independent research by investment specialists. A decrease in the expected rate of return will increase the pension charge for the year. Conversely an increase in the expected rate of return will increase the pension charge for the year. If the actual returns fall below the long-term trend estimate the charge recorded in future periods will be increased. If the actual returns exceed the long-term estimate the charge recorded in future periods will be decreased.

Under US GAAP, the costs of providing these benefits are also calculated using a projected unit credit method. Although there are certain differences between the timing and method of recognition between these two approaches, the underlying assumptions are consistent.

An indication of the variability of the main assumptions applied by management over the past two years is set out below:

	2005	2004
Discount rate	5.0%	5.4%
Rate of asset returns	7.2%	7.4%
Rate of salary increases	4.2%	4.4%

A 25 basis point decrease in the estimate of the discount factor would have resulted in an approximate £1 million decrease in the pension costs. A 25 basis point decrease in the estimate of the long-term rate of return on assets would have resulted in an approximate £4 million increase in the pension costs.

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(vii) Income taxes

As part of the process of preparing our financial statements, we are required to estimate the income tax in each of the jurisdictions in which we operate. This process involves an estimation of the actual current tax exposure together with assessing temporary differences resulting from differing treatment of items for tax and accounting purposes. These differences result in deferred tax assets and liabilities, which are included within the balance sheet.

Significant management judgement is required in determining the provision for income tax and the recognition of deferred tax assets and liabilities. However, the actual tax liabilities could differ from the provision. In such an event, we would be required to make an adjustment in a future period, and this could materially impact our financial position and results of operations.

We operate in numerous countries but the tax regulations in the USA and the UK have the most significant effect on income tax and deferred tax assets and liabilities, and the income tax expense. The tax regulations are highly complex and whilst we aim to ensure the estimates of tax assets and liabilities that are recorded are accurate, the process of agreeing tax liabilities with the tax authorities can take several years and there may be instances where the process of agreeing tax liabilities requires adjustments to be made to estimates previously recorded.

In the last two years the reduction that revising the initial estimates has had on the recorded charge for current taxes and the corresponding increase in profits is set out below:

	2005 £m	2004 £m
Increase/(reduction) in current tax charge	(38)	(60)
Increase/(reduction) in deferred tax charge	96	(8)

We recognised deferred tax liabilities of £954 million at 1 January 2006 (2004: £895 million), and have recognised deferred tax assets of £123 million (2004: £17 million). There are further unrecognised deferred tax assets for losses of £62 million (2004: £115 million). These losses relate to unrelieved tax losses in certain countries. We are required to assess the likelihood of the utilisation of these losses when determining the level of deferred tax assets for losses to be recognised. We do this based on the historical performance of the businesses, the expected expiry of the losses and the forecast performance of the business. These estimates continue to be assessed annually and may change in future years, for example if a business with a history of generating tax losses begins to show evidence of creating and utilising taxable profits. In 2005, the annual assessment of the recoverability of the UK tax position resulted in the recognition of a deferred tax asset in the UK for the first time and a credit to profits of £104 million. £18 million of such unrecognised tax losses have no time limits and hence these tax losses have a greater probability of future recognition. Any change in the recognition of deferred tax assets for losses would generate an income tax benefit in the Income Statement in the year of recognition and an income tax cost in the year of utilisation.