The investment market is currently difficult following recent financial market turmoil, with the consequent lack of liquidity and higher interest rates resulting in a reduced number of transactions whilst investors wait to assess the changing conditions. Our valuers have reflected this uncertainty in a negative (upwards) adjustment to investment yields though clear supporting transaction evidence is not readily available at present. This process is continuing as seen in data since September from CBRE and other sources (see note 8 to table below).
The table shows the principal valuation movements by sector for the three and six month periods to 30 September 2007, totalling 0.5% decline for the 6 months (Q2 -1.9%).
The capital return from the portfolio at -0.5%, as measured by IPD (calculated for our UK assets on average capital employed and excluding capitalised interest) compared favourably with the IPD Benchmark at -0.9% (Q2 British Land -1.9%, IPD -2.0%).
Contributing to this performance was like for like growth in rental value (ERV) for the portfolio over the six months at 4.2%, ahead of the market in each sector (IPD Benchmark 2.4%). The net equivalent yield (after notional purchaser’s costs) on the portfolio moved out 21bps (like for like) to 4.9% over the six months, a slightly larger shift than that applicable to the IPD Benchmark of 20bps. Given the prime nature of our portfolio, underpinned by its occupancy, lease lengths and rental growth, we would expect that widening risk premia will be reflected in valuations elsewhere, reversing the relative yield movement versus IPD in time.
Valuation
by sector |
Group
£m |
Funds/JVs1
£m |
Total
£m |
Portfolio
% |
Change2%
3mths |
Change2%
6mths |
| Retail |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Retail Warehouses |
2,285 |
1,496 |
3,781 |
23.8 |
(2.9) |
(1.9) |
| Superstores |
1,589 |
614 |
2,203 |
13.8 |
(3.3) |
(2.4) |
| Shopping Centres3 |
1,927 |
406 |
2,333 |
14.7 |
(4.2) |
(4.5) |
| Department Stores |
765 |
144 |
909 |
5.7 |
(4.0) |
(3.9) |
| High Street |
203 |
- |
203 |
1.3 |
(3.2) |
(2.7) |
| All retail |
6,769 |
2,660 |
9,429 |
59.3 |
(3.4) |
(2.9) |
| Offices4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| City5 |
4,805 |
- |
4,805 |
30.2 |
0.1 |
2.9 |
| West End6 |
1,156 |
- |
1,156 |
7.3 |
3.1 |
7.7 |
| Provincial |
93 |
13 |
106 |
0.6 |
- |
(0.1) |
| All offices |
6,054 |
13 |
6,067 |
38.1 |
0.6 |
3.6 |
Industrial, distribution,
leisure, other |
376 |
38 |
414 |
2.6 |
(4.2) |
(3.0) |
| Total7 |
13,199 |
2,711 |
15,910 |
100.0 |
(1.9) |
(0.5) |
| |
Retail Parks (Open User) |
Shopping Centres |
City Offices |
West End Offices |
| September 2007 |
4.00% |
4.75% |
4.50% |
3.75% |
| November 2007 |
4.50% |
5.00% |
5.00% |
4.25% |